Ivanovic vs. Serena: Thrilled to reach the second week of the US Open for the third time, Ivanovic relished the experience of playing under the lights of Arthur Ashe as her thunderous forehand crackled through the sport’s largest arena. From her victory over American hope Sloane Stephens emerged flashes of her vintage form, especially her ability to dictate play from her stronger groundstroke while shielding her weaker wing. On this fast surface, this challenging task will grow ever more demanding when the smiling Serb confronts the greatest player in this era of women’s tennis. Superior to Ivanovic in virtually all departments of the game, Serena sharpened her weapons with a victory over world #4 Azarenka that began as a rout and would have ended in that fashion had not one of her backhands landed an inch or two wide. Drama then ensued, but the 13-time Slam champion enjoys nothing more than drama and once again demonstrated her superiority to the WTA’s next generation.
Likely to experience less suspense in this round, Serena will thrive whenever she directs her backhand into Ivanovic’s two-hander, a neutral shot at best and often a liability against elite competition. Although the American has lost serve only once in the tournament, Ana still should swing freely on her returns in the effort to seize the initiative immediately in rallies. Should she not deliver that first strike, Serena’s more natural athleticism will offer her few opportunities to assert herself thereafter, and the Serb will not win many points from her defensive abilities. In her three fourth-round appearances at the fourth jewel in the sport’s crown, Ivanovic has drawn the daunting trio of Clijsters and the Williams sisters. Giggling with disarming charm when the media discussed her next opponent, the clear-eyed Serb knows the magnitude of the task ahead and likely lacks the confidence to convince herself that she can conquer it.
Tsonga vs. Fish: Heavy are the expectations that rest upon the top-ranked American man, especially in a tournament where many of his compatriots have surpassed their projected results. Joined in the second week by Roddick, isner, and Donald Young, Fish continues to generate the most anticipation following a summer of two small titles, a Masters 1000 final, and a first career victory over Nadal. Yet his performances to this stage have not inspired great confidence, littered with routine unforced errors and missed first serves. In the previous round against Kevin Anderson, Fish needed four set points to seal the first set and five more to seal the second. Hitting consecutive double faults at 5-4, 40-15 in the first set, he conceded consecutive backhand unforced errors at 5-4, 40-15 in the second set before losing his serve with another wayward groundstroke. Unable to finish the match more emphatically, Fish instead came within a few points of losing the third set as well.
Not known for his competitive steeliness, Tsonga has advanced more confidently against arguably more imposing competition, including an authoritative straight-sets victory over former nemesis Verdasco. Perhaps still buoyed by his Wimbledon semifinal, the Frenchman has struck even his less imposing backhand with conviction. Nevertheless, Fish should hope to arrange rallies from backhand to backhand rather than forehand to forehand, for his two-hander should break down Tsonga’s stroke under sustained pressure. As one ponders the seismic serves on both sides of the net, one wonders how many rallies in fact will develop. Both players typically establish unrelenting control over a point from the first ball, while neither transitions impressively from defense to offense. Still without a Slam semifinal, Fish has yet to prove that he can translate his ascendancy from best-of-three tournaments to majors.
Wozniacki vs. Kuznetsova: In a fourth-round night match two US Opens ago, this pair of pleasant personalities waged a gripping war of attrition that culminated in a third-set tiebreak. The 2004 champion showcased her natural athleticism in extended exchanges during which she steadily outmaneuvered the Dane from the baseline during the first set and a half. As many of Wozniacki’s more recent opponents have discovered, the precision required to execute that strategy throughout an entire match eventually eluded Kuznetsova, fallible as always when the pressure peaked. Since that crossroads, their careers have diverged in opposite directions with the Dane soaring to the top ranking and the Russian lurching to perplexing loss after perplexing loss. Reflecting their relative fortunes are their last two meetings, during which Sveta won nine total games from a steady opponent who needed no more than patience and consistency to outlast her.
Despite losing to anonymous foes like Begu, Arn, and Halep at non-majors, Kuznetsova has saved some of her best tennis in 2011 for the most important tournaments on the calendar. Reaching the Roland Garros quarterfinals, she dispatched Henin into retirement at the Australian Open and then collaborated with Schiavone on the WTA match of the year. The glittering lights of Arthur Ashe might spur her to unleash something memorable against an opponent in a state of flux. Although she survived the first week with minimal difficulty, Wozniacki pursues her first major under constantly increasing scrutiny and with correspondingly increasing uncertainty over the best means to that end. Only by staying within herself can she earn more opportunities to justify her ascendancy.
Djokovic vs. Dolgopolov: A classic example of the dark horse who can defeat almost anyone or lose to almost anyone at almost any time, Dolgopolov has recorded victories over Tsonga (twice), Soderling, Ferrer, and Wawrinka this year. Yet he also has lost to Potito Starace, Jarkko Nieminen, Jose Acasuso, and Carlos Berlocq in 2011. The last of those names should sound familiar, for it belongs to the opponent whom Djokovic mercilessly devoured in a second-round victory somewhere between exhibition and execution. After reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals and excelling in the South American clay tournaments, Dolgopolov faded throughout the spring and summer before reaching his nadir with a first-round Wimbledon loss to Gonzalez. With nowhere to go but upwards, the Ukrainian then won Umag and ousted the similarly budding Dimitrov at Winston-Salem. His second-week appearance here comes as little surprise, therefore, while his ability to physically and mentally survive the towering serve of Karlovic in the third round bodes well for his future.
A carefree character who plays an effortless brand of tennis, Dolgopolov should not flinch from the towering odds confronting him against a player who has lost only one match to a player outside the top 20 since Wimbledon last year. So overwhelming is Djokovic’s dominance that his resounding win over Davydenko, a former top-5 talent, seemed imperfect as well as unremarkable. The best mover in the ATP, the world #1 should track down the spectacular angles that Dolgopolov creates with his sprawling retrievals, ultimately driving his challenger into attempting the impossible. Beforehand, though, a series of court-stretching rallies and scrambles to and from the forecourt should unfold.
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