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US Open Day 9 Preview

Young vs. Murray: One of four American men to reach the second week, the USTA’s prodigal son has delivered the most surprising sequence of victories. Inciting a sudden surge of hope, the formerly discarded Young upset Wawrinka in a fifth-set-tiebreak encounter that may have represented a crossroads in his career. Just as important was his ability to follow up that potential breakthrough with a convincing victory over Chela, a veteran who could have exploited a novice’s hangover. But Young has tantalized fans before by launching putative breakthroughs before slipping back into frustrating underachievement. At Indian Wells this spring, for example, he stunned a listless Murray in straight sets with opportunistic play and deft touch in the forecourt. Then, he won just three games from the pedestrian Robredo.

When he enters Arthur Ashe for the first time in his career, this charismatic American will gain courage from the enthusiastic support of his compatriots. A similar dynamic could not vault either Christina McHale or Sloane Stephens to unexpected victories, however, while Murray will relish the prospect of revenge. Reversing his Miami defeat to Bogomolov during the US Open Series, the Scot will fancy his chances of halting Young’s aspirations with the same steady, stingy game that has proved impregnable against all but the most volatile shot-makers. Still without an imposing serve, Young will not win many free points from his delivery and thus will engage in rally after rally during his service games. Few players can outmaneuver or outlast Murray when at his best, for the Scot displayed his unsurpassed fitness once again in a five-set comeback against Robin Haase. As his victory over Lopez proved, the fourth seed does not struggle with the distinctive traits of a lefty style, and Young cannot trouble him from behind the baseline.

Muller vs. Nadal: Extending the world #2 to two tiebreaks at Wimbledon, the pride of Luxembourg even held set points against the Spaniard in the first set. His wickedly slicing lefty serve threw Nadal off balance on the skidding grass, yet Muller has spent much of the season at the challenger level upgrading his ranking inside the top 70. A quarterfinalist in his last appearance at the US Open, three years ago, he has found these fast hard courts suited to his serve-volley tactics in upsets over baseliners like Almagro and Davydenko. Recovering from a one-set deficit against Los Angeles champion Gulbis, Muller has won all three of his tiebreaks at this year’s US Open and probably will concentrate upon holding his serve until he reaches the thirteenth game. This (very) poor man’s Karlovic should not threaten Nadal in most return games, allowing the Spaniard to settle into a rhythm that will elevate his confidence.

Short of confidence for most of the summer, Rafa will have mounted in self-belief after a victory over Nalbandian that included a pair of tightly contested sets. After he fell behind almost immediately, the second seed unleashed some of his vintage passing shots to recoup his losses. His signature shot at many of his victories over Federer, those passing shots will prove vital to his efforts in dispatching this opponent without undue drama. If the breeze continues to whip around Arthur Ashe, the conditions should favor the player who strikes balls with greater margin and relies less upon a single point-ending blow. Often most vulnerable in the early rounds of majors, Nadal has benefited from a comfortable draw that has enabled him to settle into the tournament. Unless Muller serves at an exceptionally high percentage, the defending champion will chip away at his questionable fitness and even more questionable consistency until his rough-hewn game crumbles.

Ferrer vs. Roddick: When they collided in a Davis Cup quarterfinal this year, neither the home crowd nor the fast indoor surface could salvage a set for Roddick against the ATP’s most notable grinder. Back in the top 5 as Soderling staggers, Ferrer left scant impact upon the US Open Series but rolled through the first week while conceding only a solitary set. Even on hard courts, the Spaniard has earned repeated success against the American with two 2007 victories at Masters 1000 tournaments. His expert returning skills should defuse Roddick’s dwindling serve, no longer the mighty juggernaut that intimidated all but Federer. Despite the serve-friendly surface in New York, the 2003 champion has won his first three matches more through consistency and court coverage than by immense serving.

Having played only two matches since Wimbledon, Roddick seemed relieved to have reached the second week at the US Open for the first time in three years. He has progressed to this stage past a pair of Americans and the erratic Benneteau, competition much less challenging than the tenacity with which Ferrer assaults his opponents. Although his serve remains arguably the worst in the top 20, this fearless Spaniard will reap rewards by pounding his inside-out forehand into the American’s backhand corner, which produces few penetrating shots and virtually no offense. In order to impose himself upon Ferrer, Roddick must flatten his forehand to add the additional jolt of pace that can carry it past this dogged retriever. Outside his serve, he will struggle to either outhit or outlast the Spaniard without adopting a more aggressive attitude and striking the ball earlier than he has shown for most of this season. On the stadium where he lifted the trophy eight long years ago, can Roddick recapture the explosive hitting that won him his greatest achievements?

Kerber vs. Pennetta: One of these lucky women will become a Slam semifinalist for the first time. On the other hand, Pennetta has earned this opportunity not just with luck but with an unexpected level of determination that caused a major upset over Sharapova and a minor upset over Peng. Overcoming bouts of fallibility and a wobbly stomach in the latter match, the Italian now eyes a formerly anonymous lefty in her first Slam quarterfinal. Unfamiliar to all but the most dedicated fans, Kerber has spent most of her career toiling on outer courts, in qualifying draws, and in tiny events scattered around the world. Yet she has plowed through a section once inhabited by Kvitova and Radwanska, defeating the latter opponent in three sets. The German lefty’s serve and cross-court forehand curl effectively towards a right-hander’s backhand corner, but Pennetta moves smoothly in that direction and should withstand that modest pressure comfortably. A former quarterfinalist in New York, she has tasted victory against both of her potential semifinal opponents in important match, but she cannot afford to think too far ahead against an adversary who defines the cliché “nothing to lose.” Unlike her previous two victories, Pennetta enters this match as the clear favorite. How will she respond to this different dynamic?

Zvonareva vs. Stosur: In one of the oddest head-to-head records among the WTA top 10, Stosur has won her last seven meetings with the 2010 US Open finalist. Seemingly unnerved by the Australian’s heavy serve, Zvonareva mastered a similar test with aplomb when she dismissed the equally imposing serve of Lisicki. Striking her groundstrokes more confidently than she has since the Australian Open, the world #2 pinned her opponent behind the baseline with suffocating depth. Although Lisicki did little to ruffle Zvonareva’s fragile nerves, she responded calmly to a potential turning point when she faced triple break point early in the second set. In contrast to her flustered exit at Wimbledon, her US Open performance to date has not suggested that she feels undue pressure to repeat last year’s result.

Finally relevant again after a dismal first half, Stosur built upon reaching the Rogers Cup final to record inspired victories over a pair of Russians, Petrova and Kirilenko. Able to run around her meek backhand with surprising success on this fast surface, the former Roland Garros runner-up has inspired comparisons to the leading men with her serve-forehand combinations. Once she gains the ascendancy in a rally, her opponents have struggled to survive more than a few of her explosive forehands. In Zvonareva, however, she confronts a mover more agile and a ball-striker more solid than either of her two previous victims. Likely to test Stosur’s lateral movement, the Russian should display the pace and placement necessary to expose that well-concealed backhand. By contrast, the Australian should attempt to close off points at the net whenever she gains the opportunity, preventing Zvonareva from restarting the rally. If their exchanges last more than a few shots, the Russian’s superior footwork and consistency should snap her seven-match losing streak against Stosur, who may lack energy after enduring consecutive marathons in the previous two rounds. If this match also escalates into a final set, however, one might hand the psychological advantage to the Australian.